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A new phase in the Ukrainian war

January 20, 2015

The Donbass region of the Ukraine has successfully brought back to the state of 1945. Most of the infrastructure is destroyed, many buildings are demolished or damaged beyond repair, the groundwater is poisoned by spills from broken pipes, leaking or burst storage tanks, and vehicle wrecks, the land is littered with mines and unexploded ordnance.

Who will pay for the reconstruction? Ukraine? Russia? The European Union?

The rebel-controlled parts of Donetsk and Luhansk are a wasteland, a depopulated area which in its present state cannot even support the few which have stayed behind.

Is it worth the sacrifice if the price in the end is a barren piece of land? The only justification to keep on fighting is to destroy the Galician neo-Nazis and foil the plans of the imperial strategists in Washington.

Until now the Ukraine suffers, Russia suffers, the EU is inconvenienced. The USA is unaffected, they just deploy their agents, pay bribes, keep their propaganda machine rolling, and send weapons.

Syria, Venezuela, Ukraine will not be the last stations of the regime-change traveling show. Unless the USA doesn’t have to pay a price for these destabilization plots, the show will go on and on and on. It is comparatively cheap fun for the psychopaths in Washington.

Nobody can feel safe, nobody can be sure that the homeland will not be one day in the crosshairs of the imperial strategists, Goodwill, humanity, mercy are alien concepts for the behemoth which threatens all states, friends and foes alike, and only an international isolation and containment of the beast can save the nations of the word from blackmail, subversion, unrest, and war.

ukraine donetsk 12 2014 1

Following is a situation report from Donbass.

Slavingrad.org  original from El Murid

The beginning of a new phase in the war has become a fact in the Donbass. Nobody can talk about any violation of the ceasefire regime — the ceasefire has been simply dismissed. Ukrainian propaganda speaks of retaliation by the punitive forces who have been forced to respond to the seizure of the airport. However, it is difficult to use this term for such a massive bombardment and mass troop and armor offensive by the military — it was prepared for a long time in advance.

In fact, Kiev simply provoked the Militia to capture the airport, constantly hitting residential districts in Donetsk, killing, according to various estimates, around 300 – 350 civilians since September.

destruction Gorlovka

At any rate, the second stage of the war has become a reality. Now, both the punitive troops and the Militia must prove that they have used the duration of this strange truce to their benefit.

The UAF offensive is running along the same lines as the summer scenario, not because Ukrainian generals are stupid — but rather because the configuration of the front line leaves no other options. There is one — operational encirclement of Donetsk by flanking it in the Snezhnoe area and by a tactical seizure of Yasinovataya, Makeevka, and Khartsyzk.

Cutting the Militia off from the border, as in the summer, makes no sense. It would be enough to cut off the supply and to attempt to hold the situation for at least two weeks. Intense fighting will deplete ammunition, and without replenishing it Donetsk simply will not hold out.

Russia, continuing to adhere to the denial of its presence and to recognition of the “unity of Ukraine” will be forced to stick with it. Changing this position requires a very serious study of the consequences, for which there is simply no time now. Apparently, the Minsk “peacekeepers” did not even consider the possibility of a transition by Kiev on to the offensive and thus expected that the rather demonstrative build-up of Militia forces would in itself hold the junta back from large-scale hostilities. Thus, the Kremlin does not demonstrate anything that could be described as advance planning. Another “terrible Russian silence” has begun, or rather — in Moscow they do not know what to do. Quite pathetic statements and concerns — purely reflex actions that are typical for Russian politics as a whole.

Evidently, there will be implemented the same reflex momentary plan for holding positions and thus positionally defeating the advancing punitive troops. Without a plan of attack the game is on defense — a sure path to defeat, but nothing else appears to be available.

It is not quite clear how the different groups of the Militia will behave. Judging by the breakthrough of several tanks supported by infantry at the Putilovka bridge, they were able to break through the Spartak area [a district of Donetsk -ed.] in the Vostok Battalion’s zone of responsibility. Again Khodakovsky and again the airport. There are also reports from Yasinovataya, which is also under the control of Vostok, that not everything is all right there. Despite the fact that the Militia is fighting bravely, questions arise as to their commanders, as they did in the summer. [The attack through the Putilovka Bridge has been repulsed by now -ed.]

military map 16 01 2016 b

One can expect for a while exclusively defensive actions from the Militia in Donetsk and possibly diversionary attacks in other directions to force Kiev’s commanders to hold back their reserves. However, when such tactics bring the whole situation to a “slackening” — it will be enough for the punitive troops to be successful in any of the areas, and then no diversionary attacks will help — everything will be thrown into the breakthrough.

It is somewhat naïve to count on the fact that the Militia will wear down the enemy in defensive battles and then go on the offensive — not for that did the Kremlin rigidly halt the offensive in September, only to allow it, for some reason, in January. The goal remains unchanged — to pass the Donbass under the control of Ukraine, at any price, but with a pro-Russian administration. Actually, now people are being killed just for Zakharchenko and Plotnitskiy to become Ukrainian governors. If it will not be them, it will be someone else. Personalities are not important — functionality is.

Kiev is not satisfied with such an approach. Strictly speaking, this was why the situation became aggravated. Currently there are no signs that Kiev and Moscow are ready to resolve the problem at a stroke, so if the punitive troops do not achieve any decisive progress within a week or ten days, the intensity of the fighting could seriously decrease. Then again will be declared an incredible victory — a return to the peace process. Until the next offensive.

The only thing that the Militia can try to achieve in this situation is to take the fortified area in Avdeevka, Peski, and Opytniy and push the enemy artillery from the city for the next “ceasefire.”

In the meantime, in addition to the shelling more unpleasant news arrived for the people — the Akhmetov Foundation suspended the delivery of humanitarian aid. Until the situation is clarified.

azov battalion 1

P.S.:

A letter from a friend in Donetsk. Just that: “…was just stopped in Khartsyzk by a joint traffic police and military commandant outfit. Familiar fighters from the military commandant’s office said that there are sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the city. They are firing at cars. Eight dead bodies…”

=========

Afterthoughts:

Why doesn’t Russia act more forcefully?

Restraint in Donbass is necessary to buy time for Russia’s economic eastward expansion via trade deals with China and the rest of BRICS, the establishment of an alternative financial system to SWIFT, and a restructuring of its industrial sector to increase self-reliance.

Right now Russia is paying the price for its dependence on the European market and on Western technology, but it has the economic strength to become self-sufficient in the manufacturing, financial, and service sectors without being overly indebted.

It only needs a bit time, and by providing only covert support to the separatists, Russia basically buys time to allow the new economic policies to take effect.

Conquering the east of Ukraine, let alone anything beyond, in an open military intervention, could provide the US/NATO alliance with a justification for increased destructive activities, a risk which Russia is not willing to take at this stage of its economic restructuring process.

Whatever precautions are taken, the Donbass conflict could well become a festering wound in Russia’s western border by morphing into a long and bloody guerilla war. One should not underestimate the around-the-clock hate propaganda of the Ukrainian media against Russia. All the Ukrainians who after Maidan naively thought that they finally have reached Western consumer paradise and who see their dreams dashed and their country falling in pieces blame Russia for their misfortune and feel a burning desire for revenge.

One just has to read social media postings.

Western Ukraine has become the most anti-Russian place on the planet and there are enough young unemployed and uneducated men willing to join the Chechen diaspora and to kill Russians wherever they find them. All the CIA has to do is establish more training camps and provide assault rifles, sniper rifles, and explosives plus detonators.

It worked with Jabhat al-Nusra and with Islamic State, it maybe will work with the “Free Donbass Army” too.

 

Further information:

http://cassad-eng.livejournal.com/109910.html

http://novorossia.today/central-hospital-hit-by-ukrainian-shell-in-donetsk/

http://novorossia.today/the-dpr-estimates-damages-caused-by-war-in-10-billion/

http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/01/january-20-battle-update-peski-and.html

http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/01/ukrainian-strongpoints-overrun-by-lpr.html

http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/01/kiev-throws-its-last-reserves-into.html

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-20/the-deadly-legend-of-the-donetsk-airport-keeps-ukraine-war-going

5 comments

  1. […] For the critical thinking cat lover « A new phase in the Ukrainian war […]

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